As for the hiatus (aforementioned), I began Saturday with a bit of a sore throat which has since (d)evolved into the full-blown influenza. So, I’m taking it (not really) easy – which isn’t difficult given the almost absolute dearth of volatility characterizing the market. Nevertheless, like any good 24-hour news channel, when there is no news, I like to recycle old news or magnify insubstantial news. Here’s a smattering, concentrating on the same pairs as the previous “Notes” post…. And I like the “Pair Notes for Evening Trading” title…it reminds me of the full title of a concerto, “for cello, piano and violin” etc. …except those involve instruments, and this…well….
Bear Fishing
My previous GBP/JPY trade stopped out @ 204.01 after advancing to 204.81. +35 pips, which is not what we’ve come to enjoy and, I fear, expect from the Guppy since…well, since around 248. To think with a 1500 pip stop I could’ve rode that entire move down, instead of this “trade here, trade there” nonsense. Now I’ll say something justificatory to vindicate how many dozens of trades I performed on that 5600 pip drop, rather than admit I had weak hands and couldn’t handle a 1499 pip squeeze…actually, I can’t come up with anything.
My summation of Guppy activity since the 13th, and some forward-looking ideas:
I went long @ 203.64 based off [the analysis posted on 05/13] on 05/13, stopped out at 204.01 after a move to just above 204.81. After the third touch of the fib level failed to materialize into a break, I shorted at 204.81 on 05/14. Still holding there and anticipate further downside. That said, a break of 203 (proving a bit formidable the past day or two) will mean a decline to the 50% fib @ 202.55, which is reinforced by a heretofore durable ascending trendline from 03/16. The 61.8% fib fan was finally breached and held on the 05/19 3:00 a.m. H1 candle, subsequently becoming resistance, this leaves the trendline in the 202.30 region, followed by the 50% fan @ 201.30. Medium-term (2-3 months) I’m looking for a return deep into the 190s.
Back to the 190s? That’s what “I’m looking for” – it is not a predictive call. If the market wants a return to 213, I’d welcome that, too.
05/20 London edit: significant move up against the position after the decline to just above 202.55. Stopped out with +102, and just picked up more short @ 204.50.
05/20 NY edit: and another half added short @ 204.80. Basis @ 204.65; will drop the 204.50 half if the decline on the 0800 ET H1 candle isn’t sustained.
Elsewhere….
On EUR/AUD, my long @ 164.20 stopped out at 165.46 for +126. I did miss an short entry 164.76 on the way back down, so I am currently flat in SA2, but considering a tightly held long around @ 162, the last point of support before 100% retracement of the move begun in mid-February, back to 159.12. A 2.5 month low here; but, my bias remains negative on the AUD (yes, a new high, but I think the push above .9508 is short-lived).
05/20 London edit: took a long @ 1.6217 last night in SA2. AUD/USD still persisting above new highs, but having difficulty holding .96.
I continue to get a bearish read on GBP/CHF, but the tightening consolidation right now in the symmetrical triangle winding out on the pair isn’t technically conclusive. I am hesitant on a downside breakout because of the support @ 2.0467, though. No positions maintained here for the time being.
05/20 London edit: broke below ascending trendline to find support at previous bottom around 204.14; a false break, really, and now back into the triangle.
