Enticing, Eh? Short from 1.4235 on the pair I swore to hate.
We’ll see how this plays out: watchful for a bear trap, curl around to break above 1.43 as the alternate, adverse scenario. Stop hanging out above 1.4280….
July 28, 2009
July 21, 2009
GBP/USD: Descending Triangle
A very clear descending triangle is set up on GBP/USD. A downside break here would constitute a reversal and add up to drop to 162.60ish in the vicinity of the ascending trendline underway from the March low on.
GBP/USD: Descending Triangle
Watching and waiting for materialization. The diamonds mentioned earlier are evolving into descending triangles themselves and in one case (AUD/JPY) a symmetrical triangle. This leads me to retain a bearish bias, considering a short on the typical JPY basket I trade (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY) and GBP/USD.
July 17, 2009
EUR/USD: Symmetrical Triangle
This is a symmetrical triangle perched at the top of the larger symmetrical triangle I talked over here. Featuring a downward tilt and located at the top of a region dense with upside resistance, I think probability lies with a downside break. In fact, there was a breakout on the 0800 ET 1H candle, but that has peeled back into the pattern. A great example of why setting stops to straddle a triangle breakout isn’t an infallible or even effective tactic.
EUR/USD: Triangles within Triangles
And speaking of the all pervasive H&S, there may be one in the making with the left shoulder and now head mid-yesterday already put in…neckline would be the lower ascending trendline of the larger yellow triangle.
March 5, 2009
GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY: Turning Bullish?
The Guppy has been staging something of a rally on the back of a bit o’ risk appetite seeping back in and ahead of the all-but-certain BoE/MPC rate cut (consensus is held at 50bp from 1.0% to 0.5%), vaulting out of a symmetrical triangle yesterday (about which I almost posted, but life somehow got in the way) from the low 138’s around 24 hours ago to the present level, where the pair is yet again approaching a retest of 141.65.
This session brings with it a retest and tentative breakout from an ascending triangle above 140.75. With room above of 100 pips, the pair should tag the 141.35-141.65 region with little difficulty, but with a rate cut in the offing in several hours a break above this level (in place since early January) is anything but assured.
After 0700 ET I’ll be monitoring for a break above, but wonder if a rate cut will hamper the lift necessary to get over the hump. If that break occurred, the next area of interest lies at 143 and then ~144.50.
EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have show a tight correlation, with similar consolidative constructions occurring in tandem on both pairs. Not coincidentally, the ECB also has a rate decision today, with a 50bp cut widely expected. The levels on EUR/JPY to break above are at 125.50, followed by 126 and then 128.20, the latter of which would bring the pair back to resistance set in early January, correlating to the 141.75 level on the Guppy. Past 128.20, the field is wide open to ~131, as denoted by the 261.8% fib projection line (purple)/horizontal resistance line (white) in the upper-right corner of the following chart:
Both pairs look poised to continue their corrective action to 141.75 and 128.20, which represents 100% retracement of the January highs to the lows set out in February. A break above there (of which I’ll have no certainty until it sets up on a TF that’s tradeable for me) throws the medium term bearish scenario on each pair into serious question.
January 26, 2009
Triangle Break – Guppy Long
Awhile back I picked up the use of 144 and 169 EMAs from the Vegas 1H Tunnel method and have kept them around for reference with the other relics in my tool chest because of how price reacts to them. To them I added an additional interval 25 periods away to create a three EMA series with a 194 EMA (also a highly useful value, as it turns out, even if it doesn’t have any real mathematical significance other being the “smallest Markov number that is neither a Fibonacci or Pell number” – whatever that might mean).
Those are the yellow lines reflected on the following chart:
Triangle Break - Tunnel Break to follow?
This “tunnel” often acts as a field through which price behavior experience some volatility, often spinning off as a reversal, correction or breakout. If GBP/JPY does traverse all three EMAs (194 sits at 126.31), resistance follows at ~127, 127.55, 128, and ~128.70.
01/27 0500 ET: Closed GBP/JPY at 126.65 for +205, EUR/JPY at +120. My thoughts are that the movement toward at least 128.70 (more significant resistance ~130) will resume once this pullback to at least the 194 EMA at 126.31 or somewhere within the congestion zone around 125.45-126 – or things could move back down to 124.67, which remains pivotal short-term.
GBP/JPY Battles the Pink Robots And Wins
Right around 124.67 (the previously, previously discussed 261.8% fibonacci extension line) there’s an ascending triangle winding out that looks to break up or down (but usually up) sometime in early Tokyo. You’ll find the same construction across the board on JPY crosses.
Da' Guppy: Ascending Triangle Breakout?
Listen to the Flaming Lips’ account of the epic altercation here:
Okay, so that isn’t really GBP/JPY they are talking about. But you guessed that already. Right?
That track necessitates inclusion of my favorite song off of that disc, one of my favorite albums (of the last 10 years, at any rate):
Not a bad video, either.
January 21, 2009
GBP/JPY: Breakout?
Symmetrical Triangle breakout; descending trendline break to follow, or temporary throwback? The 124.30-124.80 range is a significant extension point, along with the 123.15 level price pivoted from earlier this morning.
March 25, 2008
03/25/08: NY
A few trades on this morning that were placed in the last hour or so:
L GBP/USD @ 199.48
L EUR/USD @ 155.83
L EUR/AUD @ 170.33
SHT USD/CHF @ 100.97
I’m watching the G/U and E/U trades to scale in further. The Swissie is dawdling in the red, but I’m giving it a bit of leash for now.
The EUR/AUD trade entry was taken of the 1H near the ascending trendline of a symmetrical triangle. Abortive breakout there to 170.66 and then back down inside, but price won’t coil much tighter.
Reading entries and exits without knowing the methodology dictating them is like beginning a book at its middle with no knowledge of the characters. Why are they plotting to kill that man by forcing him to eat a 5 gallon cooler of ice chips made of gasoline on Boxing Day, anyway? Who could possibly know stuff like that bereft of context? I’ll get around to laying the narrative foundation later on…for the trades, not the ice chips.
