Yesterday’s Trades Today; Today’s Trades…well….

Keeping good on this morning’s promise: the following trades were entered just prior to 2130 ET last evening, time stopped at just before 0730 this morning.

Long:

AUD/USD: .7849; TP @ .7889: +40

AUD/JPY 74.38; closed @ 74.72: +36

EUR/AUD 1.7576; closed @ 1.7601: -25

GBP/JPY 152.76; closed @ 153.27: +51

CAD/JPY 82.45; closed @ 82.71: +26

EUR/JPY: 130.75; closed @ 131.51: +76

Short:

USD/CAD 1.1338; closed @ 1.1309: +29

.

What else?

Today’s timeline:

0726: Long GBP/JPY @ 153.31.  Closed at 0853 @ 153.73: +42

0731: Long GBP/CHF @ 1.7704.  Closed at 0853 @ 1.7701: -3

0732: Short EUR/GBP @.8578. Closed at 0853 @ .8567: +11

0752: Long CAD/JPY @ 82.95.  Closed at 0853 @ 83.13: +17

0859: Long GBP/JPY @ 153.77.  Closed at 1023 @ 154.46: +69

0909: Long GBP/USD @ 1.6463.  Closed at 1023 @ 1.6447: -16

1145 Long GBP/JPY @ 154.32.  Closed at 1347 @ 155.09: +77

1251 Long EUR/JPY @ 133.07.  Closed at 1347 @ 133.32: +25

1406 Long GBP/JPY @ 155.04.  Closed at 1609 @ 154.86: -18 (time stop after 1600)

1406 Long GBP/USD @ 1.6432.  Closed at 1609 @ 1.6422: -10 (time stop after 1600)

2207 Short GBP/JPY @ 154.35.  Open.

2208 Short EUR/JPY @ 132.45  Open.

2209 Short CAD/JPY @ 84.07 Open.

Overnight Trades for 07/14/2009 Closed

Entries for these trades were listed over at Twitter in the middle of the night.  Here’s how things shook out:

Short:

EUR/GBP @ .8594; closed at .8576

EUR/AUD @ 1.7777; closed at 1.7686 (entry not given on Twitter; entered in two legs at 0406, 0417 ET)

Long:

GBP/JPY @ 151.04; closed at 152.04

CAD/JPY @ 80.68; closed at 81.38

AUD/JPY @ 72.87; TP @ 73.87 at 0752 ET

AUD/USD @ .7837; TP @ .7887 at 0716 ET

GBP/CHF @ 1.7629; closed at 1.7676

GBP/USD @ 1.6243; closed at 1.6326

EUR/JPY @ 130.26; closed at 130.37 (lost ground here while asleep on ZEW disappointment)
Except as noted, I closed all trades just after NY open at 0807 ET.   Will reevaluate and reenter, probably after US equity session opens.

Pair Notes for Evening Trading

A few notes from among what I’m watching this evening:

EUR/AUD: Well, the breakout I was looking for didn’t materialize above 1.6481, which for a 3rd time in 4 days proved a firm point of resistance on the pair. So, we’re stuck in yet another sideways patch. The framework here is a fib retracement of the extension from 1.5912 to 1.7412 Currently, we’re lulling between the 61.8% (@ 1.6481) and 78.6% (@162.70) retracement levels of that upward move. Because of it’s coincidence with .786, which functions as a typical reversal level, 1.6270 is a pivotal level, as we’ve just seen. So, We’ve seen a bounce off of 162.70, and now 3 separate attempts to breach 164.81 with higher lows along the way. The ascending trendline is sitting at 1.6395, 15 pips from here. No guarantees, but I do see an ascending triangle here that is about break tension with upside potential. I’m buying in SA2 @ 1.6420. Unless something averse occurs, I should be carrying this trade into tomorrow.

AUD/USD: I see the same chart pattern on AUD/USD. Extension from .8505 to .9505, price retraced 50% to .9009 (January 14/15 resistance) during March 20-24, and has been on extension back to resistance since. I’m looking for a break of .9425 to test the .95 level again. That said, I am concerned about the moderately inverse correlation coefficient between EUR/AUD and AUD/USD: just about. -.5 (think of this as “the pairs do opposite of one another 3 out of 4 times”) on the hourly, and about -.73 (“pairs do opposite almost 7 out of 8 times”) on the daily. As a result, I’m sticking with the EUR/AUD trade. If downside potential on AUD/USD presents itself, I may take a trade off of it in SA1 to complement the EUR/AUD.

GBP/JPY: The Guppy is backed up against 204.20 with nowhere to go. In the scope of the full decline of 212.86 to 192.01 (basically 2100 pips) we just saw a revisit of extension from 208 (23.6%) to 200 (61.8%) and now a retracement since Sunday back to the current level shy of 204.00, with 204.81 (38.2%) acting as our next retracement barrier; but again, 204.20 is presenting some interference to that advance. I’m long @ 203.64 in SA1 expecting movement north.

There’s more on other pairs, but enough for now.

The Dollar Bottom

With the exception of very shallow improvement against two comdolls (AUD/USD and USD/CAD), probably because of resilience induced by commodity prices, the dollar has rallied across the board for three weeks now. Every market speculator and their grandmother knows it, too (and to think only a few years back we were without 24 hour financial news). Except for some uber-economically-savvy Europeans who derive an elitist attitude from the appreciation of their currency (need I remind the Germans of the Papiermark?), everyone’s pretty excitable over change in course, now clocking in around 700 pips on the EUR/USD. The question on everyone’s mind (and if you’re on CNBC, emitting from your make-up-dabbed maw every 47 seconds, amidst babble about corporate earnings due at the time and the FOMC’s last rate decision): how far will it go?

If Trichet and Co. go dovish or we get into talk of rate cuts and a rate cuts themselves, this corrective move could really dig in its heels. This is definitely a time to practice vigilance over anything emitting from the ECB in the way of speeches, etc.

Now: the daily chart puts this moving in a falling wedge from April 15 or so; is a continuation pattern evolving? A downward move of similar duration (well, thus far) that occurred back in November/December that from 1.49 to 1.43 comes to mind as a precedent. We know what happened with that dollar rally (splat), but the ECB was operating under different assumptions (US-EU economic decoupling then, perhaps not so much now) then. So, while I see a continuation pattern the making here, I’m not as sold on it now as I was then.

Any other reasons? A couple near-term that are coming about tonight: The 50% fibonnaci fan from 144.15 to the recent high above 160, currently at 153.17 is being toyed with; but still, broken. Pair that with a break of the fib support @ 153.65 from early March (revisited on 05/01, but broken on 05/06) and you’ve got a significant breach. Can it hold? That’s what we’ll find out, beginning with Frankfurt’s open in 11 minutes.

Except I’m going to bed, so enjoy the fireworks without me.

Yen Crosses In Focus Overnight

GBP/JPY backstroked downstream without much hesitation all day today, meeting and exceeding the short-term targets around the 205.50 and 205.00 levels mentioned above. Extending to 204.24, it’s now hanging out in the 204.50 area, where I’ve got +200 locked in 20 pips away, which I may back up a bit at the Tokyo open to give some line. Further downside in the works for our dear Guppy? My initial signal holds during this mild pullback – now to hang on to the trade while we weather the oversold-choppy lull. Next stop 203.92, where I plan to reduce the position by half. We’ll see if Tokyo has other plans.

Elsewhere, EUR/GBP is exactly where I opened it: -2 pips on the spread, but things will be heading up. Patience pays great dividends, on this pair especially. I’m also eyeing a short entry on AUD/USD, but nothing actionable coalescing there until I see a break of .9395.

What else in SA1? A GBP/CHF short @ 206.11 opened @ 1719 ET: +5 at the moment…. Also, a 1/4 USD/JPY short taken @ 104.68 and a 1/4 AUD/JPY short taken @ 98.61, both down a few pips. Looking at CAD/JPY, as well. The “1/4″ means I have an intent to scale in, and that my present position sizing represents 1/4 of what my money management parameters allow me to commit. Modest positions I may add to, then.

Aside from some releases more of a domestic concern to the Japanese, their economic/monetary docket is passing through a dry spell. That said, I don’t expect much volatility overnight, but do maintain a tentatively bearish approach near-term on the Yen crosses mentioned. I’ll report back if that conclusion shifts positive.

The Doldrums

Ah, nothing to report this morning. The peaceful, consolidative slumber brought about by Tokyo’s holiday has carried over into Europe apparently – perhaps we’ll see some volatility come back in once NY open. Short positions in SA1 open on NZD/USD and AUD/USD, currently in the red a few pips on each. Looking at a short on EUR/JPY in SA1 as well, but nothing definite while it’s dawdling. In other news, the Guppy did finally break that short-term dynamic support @ 207.47 to head in the direction we anticipated back on Friday – no trades there, but it is always encouraging when one’s analysis is validated.

In Review: Weeks 15-18

Never mind daily trading activity; I have been skipping out on logging weekly trading activity…at any level of detail. To atone for the omission and take a moment to look over how Weeks 15-18 have gone, I’ve lifted the following from my records.

Note: because of varying position sizes across trades, I’ve modified the pip totals to be expressed in 1 standard lot values (e.g. where I’ve traded 5 mini lots, I’ve halved the pip total for that trade; where I’ve traded 2 standard lots, I’ve doubled the pip total; traded 1 standard lot, left total unchanged, etc.).

USD/CHF: +197; 5 W/0 L
EUR/CHF: -16; 0 W/ 1 L
GBP/CHF: +184; 7 W/3 L
CAD/JPY: -105; 1 W/4 L
EUR/JPY: -84; 4 W/4 L
GBP/JPY: +816; 14 W/7 L
AUD/JPY: +255; 3 W/1 L
USD/JPY: +213; 9 W/0 L
EUR/AUD: -127; 2 W/4 L
EUR/GBP: +97; 2 W/0 L
EUR/USD: +487; 5 W/2 L
AUD/USD: +324; 3 W/0 L
NZD/USD: +218; 7 W/2 L
GBP/USD: +192; 3 W/0 L
EUR/CAD: +139; 3 W/0 L
USD/CAD: -235; 3 W/4 L

Even though USD/CAD and I aren’t friends at the moment, along with Week 14 with +393 pips, 12 W/7 L, April (well, the last 30 trading days, including 03/30-03/31 and 05/01-05/02) was an incredibly good month:

• 2948 pips
• 122 trades on 16 pairs: 83 Wins; 32 Losses
• Win %: 68.03%

Weeks 17 and 18 went particularly well, with close to 20% of net pips earned in the month coming from last week’s GBP/JPY trades alone. For whatever reason, EUR/AUD continues to be a problematic pair (still haven’t quite figured this out; and no, it isn’t the spread), while USD/CAD’s choppy range-bound action chewed me up bit by bit and every time I came back asking for more. Neither market price action or personal performance on CAD/JPY is 100% correlated to what’s going on w/ the USD/CAD, but the relationship there can’t be missed; except sometimes when I defy reason and do miss it.

That took a bit longer than I thought. Until London opens….

In Review: Week 14

Because pragmatic concerns (life) mean I can’t consistently cover trades taken session-by-session (that would amount to a form of slavery, anyway) or even day-by-day and I am a bit obsessive-compulsive about symmetry and completeness (e.g. “4 out of a set of 5? Throw them away” or “29 pips profit? No, it’s 30 or 20, but not 29!” or “A millimeter to the left. No, I’m not kidding; A millimeter to the left”), I’ve decided to resign from the personal expectation of blogging trades as they occur (or as soon thereafter), and relegate journaling trade details to a once-a-week routine, numbering the weeks according to the weeks of the year (i.e. this week is week 15 out of 52); but of course I reserve the right to publish them more often if I like. Ahh…yet another exacerbated neurosis quelled.

An unusually high number of trades this week. Overtrading a bit on AUD/USD in particular led to some silly losses. Noticeably absent here is the large upside move on the Yen crosses. Several good setups came about around the London open on Tuesday, but I was a bit too late to the party (middle of the night) to act on them and so I passed when I saw them in the morning here. Much to my dismay as the 198.50 trigger on GBP/JPY I missed, for example, made it just above 204 before I had a read on a sell there. All that aside, a great week.

Day 1 – Sunday, 03/30/08:
SHT AUD/USD @ .9147. Closed @ .9146: +1
SHT AUD/JPY @ 91.47. Closed @ 91.12: +35
SHT GBP/JPY @ 199.52. Closed @ 198.11: +141

Pips: +177

Day 3 – Tuesday, 04/01/08
S EUR/USD @ 157.09. Closed @ 156.58: +51
L USD/CHF @ 1.0012. Closed @ 1.0032: +20.
S EUR/CAD @ 1.6010. Stopped out @ 160.55: -45
S EUR/AUD @ 1.7163. Stopped out @ 172.09: -46
B GBP/CHF @ 199.74. Closed @ 2.0039: +65
S EUR/CAD @ 159.58. Stopped out @ 159.43: +15
S EUR/AUD @ 171.84. Stopped out @ B/E: +0

Pips: +60

Day 4 – Wednesday, 04/02/08
S USD/CAD @ 1.0166. Closed @ 1.0066 (on 4/03/08): +100
S EUR/AUD @ 1.7113. Stopped out @ 1.7177: -64
S EUR/USD @ 1.5667. Closed @ 1.5552: +115
S AUD/USD @ .9139. Stopped out @ .9171: -32
S EUR/AUD @ 1.7134. Closed @ 1.7008: +126
S GBP/USD @ 1.9817 . Stopped out @ 1.9875: -58
S AUD/USD @ .9119. Stopped out @ .9149: -30

Pips: +157

Day 5 – Thursday, 04/03/08
B GBP/USD @ 1.9941. Closed @ 199.53: +12
B EUR/USD @ 1.5658. Closed @ 1.5663: +5
S AUD/USD @ .9109. Closed @ .9127: -18

(flattened positions ahead of NFP)

Pips: -1

Day 6 – Friday, 04/04/08

NFP – no trades

Cumulative Pips for Week 15: +393

Wins: 12
Losses: 7

Win %: 63.2%

The Weekend, Trades

This past weekend featured a non-restful trip out-of-town for which I was somewhat unwillingly co-opted, which incidentally compounded with several preceding similarly event-filled weekends.

Common features to each:

• 1) driving hundreds of miles,
• 2) spending $40 a tank a weekend to drive those miles,
• 3) staying as a guest at the home of another (i.e. living out of a suitcase, again, and again)
• 4) an increasingly paranoid sense that some mischievous – malevolent? – unseen intelligence is conspiring with family members to systematically nullify any period exceeding 30 seconds for which I am heretofore under no obligation to do anything whatever, for which there is always recourse to some vague, unassailable reason in the shadow of which I can only acquiesce.

As an addendum to no. 3, further note the ubiquitous (yes, in all places) presence of cat hair lilting about breezily through the air where we stayed this past weekend – lilting breezily, that is, except for those pieces that alighted on and weaved themselves inextricably through the bristles of my (lapse of higher brain function) mistakenly exposed toothbrush. Ask me if I made that mistake only once. For some context, this is a house featuring only two cats, but a) not a few plush real cat doppelgangers (the appearance of a real cat without the overflowing litter box or added cost is the presumed benefit) stationed on furniture (or nestled together in front of the fireplace!) in different rooms, b) cat blankets, pillows, portraits, refrigerator magnets, statues and other assorted cat-worshipping artifacts, c) two cups (not one – no, each cat will have its own satellite hydration station) of water on either side of an upstairs bathroom sink (nearby lay several pair of cat earrings) for leisurely lapping in addition to the bowl/dispenser in the kitchen and d) air quality characterized by a proportion of dander to breathable oxygen on a level of 900,000 parts per million, in turn yielding the equivalent of a feline skin cell-induced sinus infection each morning.

A long-haired cat at home apparently does nothing to adjust the tolerance level required, probably because, while greatly loved, our cat remains on the cat side of a wide biological gulf created by God via speciation that I refuse to span by according our cat the place – especially on the bathroom sink – reserved for a human. Too much anthropomorphisis-happy Hello, Kitty is what’s wrong with this world today.

I could go on, but tales of weekend travails with cat-loving in-laws quickly get long in the tooth. Tonight I woke up (spontaneously – it seems the old circadian rhythm is dedicated even when my conscious mind is not) for the Frankfurt open to see how a few pairs I was monitoring were faring, put on a – rare trade – on Fiber and a correlated Swissie trade. Here are those trades with the others I’ve taken since Friday morning:

Friday:
L GBP/USD @ 1.9999. Stopped out @ 1.9950: -49

Sunday (closed Monday morning):
SHT AUD/USD @ .9147. Closed @ .9146: +1
SHT AUD/JPY @ 91.47. Closed @ 91.12: +35
SHT GBP/JPY @ 199.52. Closed @ 198.11: +141

Tuesday Frankfurt/London:
SHT EUR/USD @ 157.09. Closed @ 156.58: +51
L USD/CHF @ 1.0012. Closed @ 1.0032: +20.