I am not a contrarian (whatever it really means to brand oneself as that), but have felt like a voice crying out in the wilderness this weekend.  Though I’m certainly not a bull at the moment (or maybe I am; what timeframe?), sentiment from sources credible or not seems uniformly and despondently bearish right now. [...]

I’m one of the few stragglers on the light side of the boat that isn’t utterly convinced that the “Earthquake” pullback is over; and not because of something going on in Fukushima, either. There’s a lot of fat tail risk out there today. Markets may care (they didn’t last week) or not. In any case, [...]

Now that we’ve seen any the most substantial correction since November: what next? My current read sees the S&P moving lower in the next week or two, gravitating back toward the 61.8% retracement for the cyclical 1576-666 decline to 1220. At this point, I see some technical basis for another attempt at the 78.6% retracement [...]

Fits and starts day to day from 1140 to 1225-1235, but the S&P has clawed its way to its Inverse H&S, 161.8% projection of leg CD of the measured move up that started so many points ago (1010) in July. Reference the following charts for detail on these metrics: http://andrewunknown.wordpress.com/2010/09/27/sp-500-not-stopping-here/ http://chart.ly/prcn4os Now at the 1225-1235 [...]

The S&P featured a corrective flag comprises of a falling three methods candlestick pattern. Breaking below last Monday’s large up-candle the pattern broke frame slightly, but Friday’s response falls right in line with the 5 candle setup, and a test of 1150 is back in immediate view. I see a quick run to 1160 with [...]

Quote of the Day from an article re-posted by Mish : “People are needlessly being denied the chance to buy a property while prices spiral rapidly out of their reach” ING Direct CEO Don Koch said. “There is an urgent need to provide more affordable options and borrowers should be able to choose whether they [...]

Contrary to the majority of retail (and commercial) chatter overheard this weekend, today sold off as suddenly and precipitiously as Friday rallied.  But then, if you’re here you knew that already.  You may also know, that the picture is little changed after today; but whereas Friday left the ? mark with an upside tilt, the [...]

Looking again at .SPX, I’ve thought it over. In contrast to yesterday’s bearish marubozu, today’s market action produced a rather quizzical candlestick that has more than one technician scratching their head going into the weekend. For me, the internal monologue goes something like this: Today’s open of 1067 occurred right around the 05/06 Flash Crash [...]

Medium-term sentiment remains down, as you might’ve guessed. First, a chart I created early Wednesday morning but hadn’t posted (or annotated, except with one important arrow). Self-explanatory, really: Now the wide-angle: And zoomed in on the day’s structure: