EUR/USD Daily: Symmetrical Triangle
The second chart has a lot of things going on (trend line saturation point!). The yellow horizontal lines resembling a trident are an Andrew’s Pitchfork. Notice how price is support by the lower fork line, while the rally stops short of touching (or breaching) the median line at 1.4162. In Pitchfork (PF) theory that usually (over-simplification, but not by much) presages a fall, which in this case would probably extend back to 1.3915, which coincides with the 50% fibonacci fan extending from the February low ~124.50 (above) and the lower ascending trend line of the triangle itself.
The upside has two major immediate barriers: 1) the .786% retracement at for the 06/03-06/15 range of 143.38 to 137.48 @ ~141.90, tagged on 07/01. Next, 2) the top of that range itself: 143.38 . I’m not looking for a return to these levels until another low has been put in, at least.
One other, contrary item I see is the craggy yet conspicuous inverse H&S: left shoulder at 07/06 at 138.77, head 07/08 at 138.33, and right shoulder at 138.78 on 07/10. The neckline is drawn in white, to which you’ll find a return move in the early morning hours today. If that pattern doesn’t fail, it targets ~142.50 as an initial price objective, which is the level of the left and right shoulder of the H&S top set in early June.
EUR/USD 3H: Pitchfork, FibRet, Inverse H&S?
Maybe, just maybe, I can persuade myself to take a position….
[...] This is a symmetrical triangle perched at the top of the larger symmetrical triangle I talked over here. Featuring a downward tilt and located at the top of a region dense with upside resistance, I think [...]
Pingback by EUR/USD: Symmetrical Triangle « Andrewunknown — July 17, 2009 @ 9:09 am
haha…I think you should give the E/U a whirl…it’s a hellava ride.
You know me and my prefrences…I too am short biased and right now I am letting a trade roll over to next week (which I rarely do) but I really like the set up.
Let me know how it goes. BTW I like the increased pace to posting, seems like your making up for lost time…
Comment by bgin2end — July 17, 2009 @ 9:14 pm
B2E,
It’s not as bad as the title suggests. A question the other day about my apparent lack of interest in EUR/USD (brought about by it’s absence here, I think) got me wondering why I steer clear of it, and this is the best I came up with…. And you’re right, I see tradeable opps on it often, but I never take them and do spend most of my time and energy analyzing other pairs (which I’m sure you can guess at).
I’d have to agree on the short, and I like the setup. That symmetrical triangle (the one building since beginning of June) is going to give out and I think we’ll have a massive move when it does. Along those lines, at this point I think we have a top in the 1.4338 area. I’d be more willing to put some scratch in the game on that one and I’ll keep you updated here on how things roll along.
Glad you noticed the increased pace! If I’m going to blog, then I need to try to do it consistently. It’s like that with most things I pursue: all or nothing. I think if I can turn it into more of a journal and don’t feel the weight of writing involved posts all the time that I’ll be able to keep it up. My hope is to deepen things on the analytical side again and get a little more organized (TLT is my role model when it comes to blog organization). Think I’ll start by trying to write up the methodology I use.
Comment by andrewunknown — July 18, 2009 @ 7:50 pm