Yes, that’s a Soundgarden album.
And yes: that is me after a botched trade. The guys in the band were thinking of simply calling the album “Supermad”, but they decided they wanted to pay me a tribute for posing for the photo. Thus, a last minute change to the title as released. Bet you won’t find that little factoid in Wikipedia!
I’ll quit calling off these blog moratoriums (pl. moratoria? Hm.) because life is watching and appears to have a remarkable talent for encroaching on small, barely mentionable moments that involve anything nominally trivial.
In other words, I’m the subject of a Truman Show-like experiment set on a hamster-cage island where some unseen, hegemonic puppeteer exhibits their preternatural knack for moving me about ceaselessly.
What that looks like is hard to imagine, and hard to describe. Suffice it to say I am constantly fatigued (although there is a little water bottle feeder nearby), but have been given the power to defy gravity and am invulnerable to fire ants. To compensate, I suppose. Regrettably, the smell of mayonnaise remains as repugnant as ever.
Now, to business. What does this chart say to you?
To me, it says indecision. Apprehension. Nonpluss-ed-ness. A conundrum. Something that makes me feel like an amateur ichthyologist.
You see, anyone trading GBP/JPY is really acting. That’s right, you’re that guy Quint from Jaws.
Some days you’re this Quint, spinning anecdotes of all the big fish you’ve bagged, ripping the heads off of motion-sick, non-calloused land-lubbing noobs with that crooked-mouthed, snaggle-toothed, smelt-stained Captain Ahab schtick of legend you’ve been mocking around with for years:
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You can almost hear him now: “I’m talkin’ ’bout SHARKIN’!” …And so forth.
Sure it works the tourists over pretty well, and that sonorous rendition of Spanish Ladies you belt out after some cheap Irish whiskey hits your gullet all but lulls sperm whales into your net. You’re a siren, really, luring the fish in with an arcane, Bacchic/Dionysian-inspired hypnotism. Harpooning semi-comatose Leviathans almost becomes boring when it’s done at will and so effortlessly, all except for those few who wake up from their mind-controlled lethargy because of the malodorous underarm smell emanating from the boat. This runs counter to the popularly-held position that because Old Spice’s logo features a ship, it is standard issue with commercial boating licenses.
But then, there’s the other Quint: you get in a little over your head (and the male pattern baldness hiding beneath that cap), a little hubristic, a little too liquored-up in the cabin pulling out your fake teeth and showing them off like they’re old war wounds, and suddenly a fish appears you can’t fend off:
That machete’s like putting on a stop loss order when you’re a dollar away from a margin call. Too little, too late, Cap’n. This time you’re going down, rumpled denim button-up shirt and all. With teeth like that, you know the market has no mercy.
A trader’s goal is to take the good qualities of the first Quint (let’s be reasonable with the sideburns, though), but combine them with some humility and analytical rigor in order to avoid the fate of the second.
Now let’s have a look at that again:
Take it like a man would, Quint! We all know that was a ketchup packet in your mouth, anyway.
I reversed my Guppy long (from 204.20, not aforementioned here) @ 208.61, but am watchful for a reversal. A tentative short, then. Here are some details about my back-and-forth concerning direction:
On the long side:
Upside break of ascending channel this morning at 207.88.
RSI bullish: H4 looking oversold, though D1 has room to breathe.
DI+ maintaining uptrend with an uptick in strength, but looking plateaued on H4, may be exhausting on D1.
This is the fourth touch in the ~209 area since 04/18/08. The last rejection resulted in a 1000 pip drop, but (corrective?) uptrend since mid-March continues.
In fact, with that drop, we have the making of an ascending triangle where 209 forms the horizontal. Upside breakout?
On the short side (some of this will look redundant):
This is the fourth touch in the ~209 area since 04/18/08. The last rejection resulted in a 1000 pip drop, but (corrective?) uptrend since mid-March continues. How much pushback can bullish pressure sustain before it wears off?
RSI: going oversold on H4. Bearish? Not necessarily; but….
Fib Retracement: the level the Guppy is bouncing off of is the 78.6% retracement line – typically a formidable level for advancing trends that generates a disproportionate number of reversals…square root of the Golden Ratio and all that.
I think I have a pitchfork chart around (doing my homework, Birdt!) that shows we’re nearing a trigger line…or maybe it’s the median…ah, I can’t remember; but I think it was important.
Otherwise, it’s been a so-so week. The last several months have seen approx. +5% each week. When a run like that happens, it’s exciting, even if it isn’t tenable over the long-term. This week will be comparatively modest, but should finish out a winner.
