Andrewunknown

October 30, 2009

Crater Day for $SPX: More to Come?

Today is a compelling refutation of yesterday’s headline GDP-predicated retracement/rally, particularly given the high live volume vis-a-vis the prevalent low volume program trading paradigm. My ongoing observation has been that small cap growth is leading other areas of the style map around by the nose, and today is no different with $RUT posting a 2.85% decline at 1330ET.

Chart below is of SPX with some key technical considerations and potential target/bounce points based off fibonacci extension levels Wednesday-today’s activity.

Follow Twitter feed (right sidebar or at twitter itself) for more timely technical updates as this unfolds.

SP2001

September 26, 2009

S&P 500: Measured Move Down

Filed under: Economics/Markets — Tags: , , , , , , , , — andrewunknown @ 1:38 pm

SP13

September 25, 2009

Friday Morning Chart Candy: S&P 500

Filed under: Forex News & Analysis — andrewunknown @ 9:28 am

SP10

SP11

SP12

September 24, 2009

Where Have You Been?

Filed under: General — Tags: , , — andrewunknown @ 10:20 pm

Well, me I meant. Still around; still trading (you don’t think I’d miss the opportunity to make a mockery of my self-acclaimed technical prowess with such schizophrenic price action, do you?); just not finding the writing of blog posts my primary or favored mode of expression (and by that I mean nothing artistic) lately. Instead, I’ve been posting a good bit at Twitter (updates in the upper-right here), which, with the help of Stocktwits and Chart.ly allow place constraints on me to get things across in a succinct fashion – while mobile, which is crucial at this point if I’m to find time to say anything at all – while still conveying what comes to mind, market-wise.

Maybe a passing habit, maybe not. I’m sure I’ll be back here as well relatively soon; but for now, that’s where you’ll find me….

August 12, 2009

Russell 2000: Harbinger of Armageddon

Hmmm. Pretty sure I published this, but it isn’t posted. Trades at bottom are closed in profit at this point….

Yes, one of the four horsemen depicted in Revelation goes by the name of Russell.

Been a few. Think I’ll get up in the middle of the night to check in on my trades, go out under the Perseids meteor shower.

Meanwhile, thought I’d throw this up:

RUT

Ominous, no? The worst-case scenario would disappoint more than a few people. Likely? I think not…BUT…. Back to the horizontal line is more than enough to shake out the weak hands.

Short GBP/JPY @ 158.26, EUR/JPY @ 135.72, CAD/JPY @ 86.81, Long USD/CAD @ 1.1017.

More later.

August 4, 2009

Was That It?

That was short-lived, at least as I traded it.

GBP/JPY took profit at 0337 ET @ 160.63: +100

EUR/JPY took profit at 0443 ET @ 136.29: +101

Took USD/CAD off for +11, EUR/USD for -4.

Currently appraisal of bias is still short on these pairs, with USD/CAD holding out (momentarily) at 1.0650.  Was that it for the correction?  If that’s right, what follows below will seem oddly chosen, and I’ll be looking short yet again.

Two current trades:

  • Took a long on a piercing pattern (not such a good example, in retrospect) around the 1.6956 261.8% fib extension I’ve been trading around on GBP/USD at 1.5982.  Got in there at the close of the 0400 candle, but think that was a premature given the range over the past 3 hours.  Not liking my choice:
GBP/USD: Piercing Pattern, or Just a Range?  Meh.

GBP/USD: Piercing Pattern, or Just a Range? Meh.

  • and a long on a corrective bull flag for EUR/USD at 1.4411 that has yet to break out…likewise a bit premature on the entry.
EUR/USD: Corrective Flag, or Topping Formation?

EUR/USD: Corrective Flag, or Topping Formation?

Those trades are in progress for the moment.  Check out my Twitter (also on the sidebar ->) for more timely updates and analysis as things unfold!

Time For A Breath?

…My thinking.  $SPX has tagged and closed above 1k (yippee for now), but is in the thick of a small, formidable range bounded to the upside ~1014 (38.2% fib retracement from top to bottom).  That may mean nothing: if not, the way up is tall and thin with little to bump one’s head on until 1122 (50% retracement).  Upside resistance there on the equity side resonates with what I think are the terminal fibonacci extensions to be tagged on this move up for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: three of a small handful of pairs I monitor to evaluate sentiment.  I may be all wrong (and I’m guarding convictions with fairly tight stops), but I see some backflow out of EUR and GBP overnight, into the morning.  CPCEPI and Consumption out at 0830ET could catalyze or nullify that projections.

Trades for overnight:

USD/CAD: Long 1.0663, Stop 1.0570, TP 1.0763

GBP/JPY: Short 161.63, Stop 162.40, TP 160.64

EUR/USD: Short 1.4403, Stop 144.73, TP 1.4303

EUR/JPY Short 137.30, Stop 137.92, TP 136.29

August 3, 2009

08/03/09 Overnight Trades: GBP/USD

Filed under: Trading Journal — Tags: , , , , , , , , — andrewunknown @ 8:37 am

Last night’s long trades on GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD and short on USD/CAD went over well.  Each trade was based on anticipation of attaining a fibonacci extension level, building on last Friday’s substantial movement.  No time to outline each trade, but here’s a snippet, going over the GBP/USD trade.

First, a simple trade I outlined over the weekend, didn’t take for obvious reasons (entry was on 07/19), but on which the trade I did take last night was built:

And last night’s trade.  Basic 1-2-3 pattern: a measured move up, even if it’s a pretty ugly one.  Given that I wasn’t starting this until the beginning of this month, I was a little late to the party.

Picking the low on 07/29 at 1.6338 as Point 1, the swing high early the next morning at 1.6526 and then the low shortly thereafter at 164.56, the original trigger for this trade would’ve been either:

  • a close above the corrective trendline at 1000 ET on 07/30 at 1.6492, which subsequently spun its wheels until, the second and more conservative entry point at
  • on the close above the range of the first fibonacci study in the 0000 ET 07/31 candle at 1.6542.

With neither of those applying by Sunday night, I entered a couple pips above the 161.8% extension of the green study from the previous chart (the top dashed green line @ 1.6735) at 1.6737. Breaking above the congestion at 1.6760 (the 161.8% extension of the second green study on this chart) confirmed the entry. I then time stopped the trade to take profit this morning at 1.6868 for +131.

If one were to draw a retracement over the congestion from 1200 ET 07/31 to 0000 ET 08/03, they’d find price retraced 78.6%, from which an extension could be drawn that pegs the 161.8% level for each in the 168.50 area. The next area of interest is the 261.8% of these and the latter green study on the above chart, all falling at 1.6937-1.6954.

The trade itself is noteworthy because of the hesitancy I would otherwise have over taking an entry after a parabolic rise like the one that occurred on 07/31.

August 2, 2009

July Behind, August Ahead

At risk of jeopardizing positive momentum, I’ll say it anyway: July was a great month.  The final two weeks brought the incline of my primary account’s equity curve back to a more reasonable angle, but were still fantastic weeks.  Overall, the preceding 6 weeks have been an amazing streak that have more than doubled my equity from mid-June.

Perpetuating success means looking around for failure.  Bad habits go away, making room for others or become dormant only to return more forcefully than ever.  I’ve elaborated some on what I feel I’ve been doing right in previous posts; but what have I been doing wrong?  Well, the usual answer: ineffectively managing risk.  My win ratio has been through the roof across this 1.5 month period (well, what I regard as “through the roof”: 70-80%), but those times where I have been wrong, especially one instance of multiple pairs on together with a correlated risk profile that I didn’t properly account for, I’ve taken hits that I think are unacceptable.  A related issue is volume: “high probability setups” is just fine, but when you’re taking quite a few of those and managing them a little more shoddily than you’d like because quantity overwhelms your patience, availability, etc., then there is a problem, “high probability” be damned.

This month, I’ll be concentrating on 1) moderating trade volume.  No quotas or that kind of nonsense.  2) In tandem with that, evaluating trades-in-progress (TIP) a bit more rigorously.  I usually time stop any TIPs two times a day (once around 7-8 a.m., the other around 12 p.m-1 p.m. ET) whether in profit or not, but there is always the occasional trade I regret letting go of because of further potential.  Sure, I’ll dip back in later if variables align, but fewer trades and less analysis for re-entry would follow from letting those “winners run”.  Or maybe I shouldn’t screw with a good thing.  We’ll see.

In other news, a randomly answered question over the weekend about fibonacci retracements and extensions rekindled my interest in their application to my own activity.  I’ve never been much for mucking around with indicators, methodologies developed and peddled by others, systems (automated or not).  My toolbox has accumulated odds-and-ends over time, but is relatively lo-tech, simplistic and without novelty.  Thankfully, innate temperament has always dissuaded me from hopping on the custom indicator/EA/method-o’-the-week hamster wheel.  Fibonacci – and Ichimoku – is, really, about as “sophisticated” as gets, and I realize I’ve missed how my use of fib studies complemented those tools I more typically use.  My plan is to use retracements, projections, extensions and fans more extensively, and if I’m inclined I’ll get back into some Gartley and other harmonic patterns.

July 28, 2009

EUR/USD: Breakdown?

Filed under: Forex News & Analysis — Tags: , , , , — andrewunknown @ 9:26 am

Enticing, Eh?  Short from 1.4235 on the pair I swore to hate.

We’ll see how this plays out: watchful for a bear trap, curl around to break above 1.43 as the alternate, adverse scenario.  Stop hanging out above 1.4280….

EU

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